The collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria presents a complex geopolitical landscape, marked by both opportunities and significant risks. While the downfall of the Assad government deals a blow to Russia and Iran, the swift takeover by rebel forces, led by the UN-designated terrorist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), raises concerns about the country's future trajectory.
Former President Trump's strategic decision to maintain a small U.S. military presence in Syria appears prescient in light of these developments. These forces, positioned near the Iraqi border and oil fields, serve as a crucial bulwark against the resurgence of ISIS. The potential for the emergence of an "ISIS 2.0" is a serious concern, given the instability and power vacuum created by Assad's removal.
HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani, in a recent address, acknowledged the widespread devastation caused by the war and expressed optimism about Syria's recovery. However, the true intentions of HTS remain uncertain. Whether the group genuinely seeks to rebuild the nation or revert to its al Qaeda roots remains a critical question, especially considering Syria's fragile economy, high unemployment, and the lingering effects of the devastating 2023 earthquake.
The geopolitical implications of Assad's fall are substantial. Russia's influence in the region has been significantly diminished, and its military installations in Syria are now vulnerable. Iran's ambitions in the region have also suffered a setback, with its supply lines to Hezbollah disrupted. However, the fact that a UN-designated terrorist group now controls Syria presents a new set of challenges. Golani's history, including his admiration for the 9/11 attacks, raises red flags. His reference to the Golan Heights, a territory seized by Israel, further adds to the unease.
Another major concern is the potential release of thousands of ISIS fighters currently held in detention camps in western Syria. U.S. commanders have warned that these camps are breeding grounds for resentment and could fuel a resurgence of ISIS violence both regionally and internationally.
The continued presence of U.S. forces in Syria, though small, plays a vital role in maintaining stability and countering ISIS. Recent actions by U.S. airpower demonstrate their commitment to this mission. While the removal of Assad presents a potential turning point, the path ahead for Syria is fraught with uncertainty. The new administration faces the daunting task of navigating this complex situation and working towards a peaceful resolution.
