Senator Joe Manchin's presence at a "No Labels" event in New Hampshire has ignited worries among Democrats about a potential third-party presidential bid that could disrupt the 2024 election. Manchin, a moderate Democrat from West Virginia, has not declared his intentions for the upcoming election, but his attendance at the event has fueled speculation. While Manchin insists his participation isn't a definitive sign of a third-party run, he hasn't ruled out any possibilities, stating it's primarily a conference.
Comparisons have been drawn to Ross Perot's 1992 independent campaign, which some believe diverted votes from Republican incumbent George H.W. Bush. Manchin, however, questioned this assumption, pointing to Bill Clinton's victory in that election. This situation unfolds as Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s primary challenge to President Biden gains traction, further complicating the Democratic landscape.
Manchin's potential re-election bid for his Senate seat also faces obstacles in West Virginia, a state where Donald Trump holds considerable influence. The state's popular governor, Jim Justice, a former Democrat who switched to the Republican party, and Representative Alex X. Mooney are both vying to challenge Manchin. West Virginia exemplifies a broader political shift in traditionally Democratic areas, now leaning Republican.
Kayleigh McEnany, former White House press secretary, analyzed the situation, noting a decline in third-party support from 6% in 2016 to 2% in 2020, suggesting the shift benefited Biden. She believes a Manchin presidential bid could favor Republicans. No Labels, the group organizing the event, claims they will only proceed if they see a viable path to victory and assert their ability to secure ballot access in all 50 states.
No Labels, with prominent figures like former Senator Joe Lieberman and former Governor Larry Hogan among its leadership, faces opposition from some Democrats. Former House Majority Leader Dick Gephardt plans to counter a No Labels bid, with support from figures like Stuart Stevens. Earlier this year, Lieberman identified Manchin, Hogan, and Senator Susan Collins as potential candidates for No Labels to rally behind. Hogan, who recently declined a Republican presidential bid, has advocated for the GOP to return to Reagan-era principles.
