Former President Donald Trump's potential second withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement raises questions about the process and consequences of such a move. Established in 2015, this legally binding treaty unites nearly 195 nations in combating climate change. The US initially joined under President Obama in 2016, withdrew under Trump in 2020, and rejoined under President Biden in 2021.
Article 28 of the agreement dictates a three-year waiting period before withdrawal, explaining the delay in Trump's initial exit. However, a second withdrawal under a new Trump administration could happen much faster due to Biden's swift rejoining process. This rapid shift could damage international trust, according to Max Boykoff, a professor at the University of Colorado Boulder, and potentially inspire other nations to follow suit, as Argentinian President Javier Milei has hinted.
Supporters of a US withdrawal cite regaining national sovereignty and avoiding economic disadvantages compared to countries like China, which has higher emissions but less stringent reduction commitments, as key benefits. H. Sterling Burnett of the Heartland Institute also proposes submitting the treaty to the Senate for a two-thirds majority vote for rejoining, creating a barrier for future administrations.
Beyond the Paris Agreement, withdrawing from the 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is also being discussed. Mandy Gunasekara, former EPA chief of staff under Trump, advocates for leaving both agreements for a more permanent solution to what she views as detrimental economic deals with limited environmental benefit.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres has expressed concern about the impact of US absence on the Paris Agreement's effectiveness, emphasizing the need for US participation and policies aligned with climate goals.
