Pre- and post-2024 presidential election polls consistently highlighted the economy as a primary voter concern, especially among Donald Trump supporters. This contradicted the Biden-Harris administration's narrative of a thriving economy under their leadership, often citing employment figures as evidence.
However, a recent Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia report reveals a significant discrepancy in the Biden administration's employment data. The report indicates that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) overestimated employment figures in 25 states during the second quarter of 2024, while only two states saw overestimations. This contrasts sharply with the administration's initial reports, which touted an increase in employment numbers.
According to the Philadelphia Fed, the revised data suggests a 0.1% decline in state payroll employment during the second quarter, indicating job losses. This contradicts the Biden administration’s earlier claims of a 1.8% increase based on state-level data and a 1.1% increase based on national survey data.
The discrepancy between the initial and revised figures is substantial, ranging from 1.2 to 1.9 percentage points. This translates to a potential overestimation of up to 3 million jobs nationwide. The author questions the reasons behind such a significant disparity, raising concerns about potential manipulation of employment surveys to portray a rosier economic picture.
The author notes that such significant revisions are unusual, citing previous Philadelphia Fed reports where discrepancies were minimal. Similar overestimations were observed in reports from 2022, another election year. The author emphasizes that in cases of significant revisions, the adjusted figures typically reveal lower employment numbers than initially reported, suggesting a pattern of potentially inflated data during election cycles.
The author concludes by questioning whether these discrepancies are coincidental or indicative of deliberate manipulation by the Biden-Harris administration. A congressional investigation is suggested to uncover the truth behind these potentially misleading employment figures.
