The centrist group No Labels is gaining traction, as polls reveal a growing appetite for a third-party presidential candidate in 2024. This surge in interest has prompted some Democratic strategists to join forces with anti-Trump Republicans in an attempt to counter the movement. Recent meetings involving figures like former White House chief of staff Ron Klain and former Republican commentator Bill Kristol underscore the concern surrounding No Labels' potential impact.
Fueling this concern is a recent poll showing a significant portion of voters – one in four – favoring a hypothetical, unnamed candidate over both President Biden and former President Donald Trump. This statistic, combined with another showing roughly a third of voters in both parties desiring alternative candidates, has emboldened No Labels' belief in their 2024 prospects.
No Labels interprets this data as a clear sign that Americans are yearning for a candidate outside the traditional two-party system. They argue that the poll likely underestimates the potential support for a moderate third-party candidate, given the hypothetical nature of the unnamed option. They believe that a well-defined moderate could garner substantial support.
However, critics argue that polls featuring unnamed candidates are inherently flawed. They suggest that respondents project their ideal candidate onto the blank slate, leading to inflated support figures that would dwindle once a specific candidate is named.
While No Labels has secured ballot access in several states, the identity of their potential 2024 candidate remains unknown. They've labeled Trump as "unacceptable" but haven't committed to fielding a candidate if Trump doesn't secure the Republican nomination. The group also faces the persistent challenge of dispelling the perception that a third-party run would siphon votes from Biden and inadvertently aid Trump. No Labels contends that their "unity ticket" would draw equal support from both sides of the aisle, potentially securing electoral votes in key swing states.
Skeptics find this scenario improbable. They point out that while some third-party candidates initially poll well, voters ultimately gravitate towards established parties as Election Day approaches. They dismiss No Labels' projected path to victory as unrealistic.
No Labels plans to make its decision about nominating a candidate after the early primaries. Citing Biden's age and approval ratings, along with widespread dissatisfaction with a potential Biden-Trump rematch, the group believes 2024 presents a unique opportunity for a viable independent candidate. They view this opening as significantly larger than in previous elections with third-party contenders, arguing that public discontent with the established choices creates a fertile ground for an alternative.
